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Demand off-season highlights Shanghai aluminum or weak oscillation
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/12/20
- Click Amount: 1044
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【Aluminum Road Network】
After rising for more than a month, aluminum prices have recently seen a sharp correction. The previous continuous rise in aluminum prices was mainly driven by favorable macro factors. On the one hand, U.S. inflation shows signs of slowing down, and the Fed is expected to slow down interest rate hikes. On the other hand, a series of domestic growth stabilization policies have been continuously released, making the market more optimistic about the recovery of the economy and the improvement of demand. However, the impact of the continuous monetary tightening policy on the economy has gradually become prominent, and the last interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve this year is coming soon, and the enthusiasm of market bulls has faded. Moreover, after the domestic epidemic control was relaxed, the rebound of the epidemic also had a certain impact on downstream consumption, and weak demand dragged down aluminum prices. There has been a pullback in aluminum prices recently.
The Fed's firm stance against inflation, the market sentiment is bearish
The last interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve this year came to an end this week. The Fed raised interest rates by 50BP as scheduled, but the meeting statement was not as dovish as market expectations. The U.S. November CPI announced on December 14 fell more than expected, strengthening market expectations for the Fed to slow down interest rate hikes. And after the release of the CPI data, CME's "Fed Watch Tool" showed that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.25% in March next year fell sharply to 20%, reflecting the market's increased expectations for the Fed's "terminal rate" to stop at 5%. . Although the Fed subsequently raised interest rates by 50BP as scheduled, the Fed meeting statement and Powell's speech strengthened the Fed's anti-inflation stance, and policymakers expect interest rates to exceed the 5% mark in 2023, breaking market expectations.
In addition, the Federal Reserve Source:
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